David Brown is worried. As managing director of the IT transformation group at Bank of New York Mellon, he is responsible for the health and welfare of 112,500 Cobol programs -- 343 million lines of code -- that run core banking and other operations. But many of the people who built that code base, some of which goes back to the early days of Cobol in the 1960s,will be retiring在接下来的几年。
“我们的人，我们会失去谁拥有了大量的商业知识，这让我害怕，”布朗说。他关注寻找新的COBOL程序员，预计是谁in short supply在未来的五到十年。但真正让他彻夜难眠的是思想，他可能无法就走出与谁是退休职工的门之前，转移嵌入银行的计划中的业务逻辑的深刻理解。
More than 50 years after Cobol came on the scene, the language is好好地活着在世界上最大的公司，它擅长于在大型机上运行大规模量和交易处理业务。语言以其可扩展性，性能和数学精度。但是，随着潮一代准备检查的劳动力了，IT管理人员正在重新审视自己的选择。
Cobol语言是在您的组织被用于开发新的业务应用？
Yes - 53%
否 - 44％
不知道 - 3％
基地：131
在一个计算机世界surveyof 357 IT professionals conducted recently, 46% said they are already noticing a Cobol programmer shortage in the market, while 50% said the average age of their Cobol staff is 45 or older; 22% said the age is 55 or older.
“组织正试图不要让被逼到因为这个技能问题的一角，”保罗门头沟，在软件供应商Compuware公司公司“我还没有看到公司移出主机由于Cobol语言技能短缺尚未大型机销售总监，但是他说，它若隐若现“。
对于纽约银行（BNY）梅隆，它收购了其第一主机在1955年，即保持在大型机上运行的业务是有道理的核心COBOL应用程序。现代化的努力取得了这些方案更多的是通过使用Web服务的更多了最新的用户界面访问和。
但对于其他类型的非核心应用，而对于较小的工作负载，企业已逐步迁移过大型机的 - 从Cobol的路程。在某些情况下，这些Cobol程序只是重新托管在Linux或Windows服务器;在其他情况下，他们正在改写其他的面向对象语言;还有一些方案正在取代套装软件。
“在过去的五年里一直存在（有些）企业移动关闭主机平台的加速，”亚当负担，埃森哲全球应用程序现代化领导说。通常，这意味着离开的Cobol落后要么重写它J2EE或.NET或移动到打包的软件。
在过去的几年中，Gartner公司估计，世界已经看到关于总COBOL代码下降5％分析师戴尔桥说。备受他们的传统语言看，当他们退休硬件移出小型和中型的大型机商店是涉及迁移。
It's declining because the functions can be developed by some other building block. "Cobol is no longer needed," Vecchio says. "There are alternatives."
While rehosting can get code off the mainframe quickly -- Micro Focus sells a platform that will support it on a Microsoft Azure cloud -- that is often seen as an intermediate step. It can be used as a way to get Cobol off the mainframe quickly, before eventually completely modernizing and transforming those legacy programs.
Cobol语言的形象问题
COBOL，作为一种程序语言，不认为是敏捷的面向对象语言的现代编程的移动应用程序和Web需要这样。尽管国家的最先进的COBOL开发环境的可用性 - 包括IBM的企业Cobol语言在大型机和Micro Focus的视觉Cobol语言，这与微软的Visual Studio开发套件以及集成了对.NET - Cobol语言作为人们普遍认为一个传统的语言。
Nearly half (49%) of survey respondents whose organizations don't use Cobol say the reason is that the language is simply outdated.
Not everyone agrees, of course. "Cobol has had lasting value, and it's not broken," says Kevin Stoodley, IBM Fellow and chief technology officer of enterprise modernization tools, compilers and security atIBM.
计算机世界的读者约有64％同意，并说他们的组织仍然使用Cobol语言 - 超过除的Java / JavaScript和Visual Basic任何现代语言。上次我们遇到一个COBOL调查，早在2006年，受访者约62％的人表示，他们仍在使用的Cobol在这一点上。
在多大程度上你的组织或系统使用这些编程语言？
Language name A lot A little None
COBOL 48％16％37％
JavaScript 41% 41% 19%
Java 39% 40% 22%
C＃26％25％50％
VB.net 25％38％38％
Visual Basic中22％49％30％
基地：202
在最近的调查中，受访者超过50％的人说的Cobol表示除所有内部业务应用程序代码的一半以上。
"There has been no renaissance for Cobol," says Accenture's Burden. "There's not a whole lot of new development going on. But our clients are enhancing their core applications and continue to maintain them." Indeed, 53% of readers say they're still building at least some new business applications in Cobol. The vast majority of that code is still being written for the mainframe.
但IT组织也没有太多的选择。内置迁移用Cobol大规模系统实在是太昂贵和危险的命题。“他们可能想要的东西，更灵活，但是他们不能做到这一点。他们掳去的Cobol，”负担说。
The down economy has helped put off the inevitable, Compuware's Vallely says. "Economic issues provided everyone with a hall pass because not as many folks were looking to retire," he says. But as the economy improves, retirement plans may pick up too. "Organizations are trying to be more proactive," he predicts.
"No other language has seen as big an impact from changes in the demographics of the workforce as has Cobol," Vecchio says. Going forward it will become more difficult to maintain a Cobol portfolio.
“拐点会来当足够的COBOL程序员已经退休了，一个组织不能再容忍的风险，”他说。在这一点上，大多数这些计划将迁移 - 但不是全部。
调整Cobol
For BNY Mellon, those Cobol batch and transaction processing programs on the mainframe represent an enormous investment. And while Gartner says it's technically possible to move mainframe workloads of up to 3,000 MIPS, the workload at the bank, which relies heavily on Cobol, consumes 52,000 MIPS of processing horsepower, spans nine mainframes and is growing at a 10% clip each year.
“企业希望我们能够在该节目购买他们新的收入投资。重写应用程序不购买他们的任何增值服务，”布朗说。
Instead, the strategy is to "rightsize" some non-core applications off the mainframe where there's a business benefit, try to keep mainframe MIPS growth under 5%, and stay the course with the bank's core Cobol applications by passing on the business knowledge to younger programmers the bank will need to recruit and train. (See sidebar.)
关闭Cobol语言的人才缺口
你在哪里找到COBOL程序员这些天？高校毕业生在Cobol语言培训是供不应求。在密歇根州，例如，公立学校能够提供的Cobol编程已经取消类，由于缺乏兴趣。“他们不能得到任何人报名参加，”乔纳森·米勒，萨吉诺县信息系统和服务的主任。
But some colleges are still providing Cobol training -- with help from IBM. The mainframe vendorhas developedcurricula in association with more than 80 colleges and universities ranging from Brigham Young to Texas A&M. "We donate hardware and software, help with the curriculum, and they graduate hundreds of people every year," says Kevin Stoodley, IBM fellow and chief technology officer.
卫人寿保险公司已经从劳动力服务的机会，一个非营利性与商业客户及本地院校合作，培养经济困难学生填写不太流行的技术学科比如COBOL编程招募COBOL程序员。“他们把孩子从贫穷社区，并为他们担任顾问，”前卫CIO弗兰克漫步，谁现在有自己的咨询公司，IT卓越研究所说。
“这是一种a work/study program. We have over 200 consultants today in five states, and we're expanding," says Workforce founder Art Langer.
BNY Mellon and many other organizations also increasingly rely on outsourcing firms to pick up maintenance and support duties. But for many customers with mission-critical applications, offshore is not the place to keep the institutional knowledge of the business rules that is behind that code. David Brown, managing director of BNY Mellon's IT transformation group, says the bank wants those skills in house.
幸运的是，不是所有的困难在Cobol的交叉培训的程序员。“现在这是很容易聘请程序员，如果他们理解Java，我可以把他们带回类似于Cobol过程语言，”布朗说。这一招，他说，是开发，教不只是Cobol语言课程，但是执行公司的代码背后的商业规则。“我们需要确保我们可以推出的是向前。”
- 罗伯特·米切尔
其他功能，如总账和报表，被移动到分布式计算平台，他们在那里无论是套装软件更换或重新设计成Java或.NET应用程序。
但布朗仍然需要Cobol程序员来取代those expected to retire, and the learning curve can extend out for a year or more. That means adding staff and having a period of overlap as Cobol's secrets get passed on to the next generation. "I'm trying to get those people onboard and do the knowledge transfer sooner rather than later," Brown says.
But that kind of proactive approach, and the extra costs it incurs, can be a hard sell. "We haven't gotten to the point of feeling the pain yet. When we do, it will happen," he says.
Brown wouldn't specify the number of people he's hoping to hire, but said that the "real heavy need" will happen in the next five to 10 years, as the original mainframe programmers are expected to retire en force during that period. BNY Mellon currently has "a few hundred" Cobol programmers on staff, Brown says.
布朗的担忧都处于有利地位大卫·加尔萨，三一集团千年，软件工程公司，已处理代码转换为大型企业和政府机构的总裁兼首席执行官说。“我们几乎让每一个职业都有Cobol语言的话，”他说，和大多数的调用都来自那些已经失去了他们的业务逻辑的集体知识的组织。在这一点上，他说，“这是一个很大的风险。”
The cost of waiting
三一集团千禧和其他厂商像它已经用于分析和提取嵌入的COBOL代码行之间的业务规则建立的过程。“该解决方案具有的能力，提取逻辑和规则方面走了很长的路要走，说：”负担。
但是这个过程是费时又费钱。一个千年客户最近花了$ 1百万有其Cobol程序分析和业务逻辑重建为迁移项目关闭主机的一部分。“如果他们有传统的程序员那里，我们已经做了锻炼他们，这将花费$ 200,000，拍摄时间十分之一，”加尔萨说。如果等到该机构知识走了，他警告说，成本可能会高得多十倍比它已预先。
你是否注意到的Cobol语言技能短缺的劳动力市场？
Yes - 46%
No - 23%
还没;期待它5年之内 - 22％
Don't know - 8%
基地：131
复利的技能和商业知识的损失是，对于一些组织，几十年的变化已经创建的意大利面条代码，即使是最有经验的程序员不能想出一个令人费解的混乱的事实。“有些系统是如此糟糕，程序员完全不允许更改代码吼道，”加尔萨说。“这简直是太冒险去改变它。他们冻实。”
Package deal
这是面临的吉姆Gwinn，对于美国农业部农场服务局首席信息官的情况。美国农业部的System / 36和AS / 400系统上运行的处理$ 25十亿的农业贷款和方案Cobol程序。“我们有上百万的Cobol的行和有被改写它的一个很长的历史，”他说。“它已成为越来越难以改变，因为的复杂性，并且写了它的知识库的磨损的代码。”这是一个大问题，因为控制农业项目的法律，每年变化，驱动需要更新代码，以反映这些变化。
Gwinn雇用的顾问来自IBM，谁的结论是，在不同的语言重写程序或重新托管它们的分布式计算平台上的将是复杂和昂贵。但系统/ 36的硬件不得不去，所以Gwinn决定咬咬牙：FSA将被重写一些用Java代码，并与SAP套装软件更换余下时间的结束生命的大型机系统的动销。